Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Brewers to win

66% chancePrice -2071 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Milwaukee Brewers 66% and Cincinnati Reds 34%. The bookmakers agree and make Milwaukee Brewers the favourite at -207.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Milwaukee Brewers won 3 of their last 5 and Cincinnati Reds won 2 of their last 5. Milwaukee Brewers come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Milwaukee Brewers won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Cincinnati Reds won 4 of their last 12 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Milwaukee Brewers score 5.3 runs a game and let in 4.5. Cincinnati Reds score 5.1 and let in 6.8. Their recent games average 9.9 and 11.8 runs in total, and the market line is 8.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, Milwaukee Brewers won 2 and Cincinnati Reds won 3. The last one ended Cincinnati Reds 12, Milwaukee Brewers 8.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Brewers to win has a 66% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Brewers +3.5 wins if Brewers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.