Connecticut Sun vs Atlanta Dream prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Sun +21.5

76% chanceFair price -3252 units

★

Eagle value pick

Over 169.5 points

55% chancePrice -110+4.2% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Atlanta Dream 89% and Connecticut Sun 11%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlanta Dream the favourite at -1205.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Atlanta Dream won 4 of their last 5 and Connecticut Sun won 1 of their last 5. Atlanta Dream come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Atlanta Dream won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Connecticut Sun won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Atlanta Dream score 93.9 points a game and let in 87.7. Connecticut Sun score 78.5 and let in 89.0. Their recent games average 181.6 and 167.4 points in total, and the market line is 169.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 2 meetings, Atlanta Dream won 2 and Connecticut Sun won 0. The last one ended Connecticut Sun 69, Atlanta Dream 104.

6. 6
   Where the value is

   Over 169.5 points is priced at -110. Our fair price is -120, so the bookmaker pays about 4.2% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Dream +3.5 wins if Dream win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.