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BrasileiraoSun 20 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Corinthians vs Fluminense prediction

Neo Química Arena

CorinthiansHome

1.17 : 1.05

expected goals

FluminenseAway

38%Corinthians

31%Draw

32%Fluminense

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Fluminense is Corinthians to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Corinthians to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Corinthians 1.2, Fluminense 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.071 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Corinthians 38%, the draw 31% and Fluminense 32%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Corinthians took 3 points from their last 5 games and Fluminense took 11 from 5. Fluminense come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Corinthians won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Fluminense won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Corinthians score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Fluminense score 1.5 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Corinthians games and 10 of Fluminense games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Corinthians won 1 and Fluminense won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Fluminense 3, Corinthians 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Corinthians vs Fluminense: Corinthians shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Corinthians host Fluminense in the Brasileirao on Sun 20 Sept, 19:00 at Neo Química Arena. Our prediction for Corinthians vs Fluminense is Corinthians to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Corinthians form

Corinthians have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Fluminense form

Fluminense have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Corinthians won 1, Fluminense won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Fluminense 3, Corinthians 1.

Our call

We expect Corinthians to score about 1.2 goals and Fluminense about 1.1. That points to Corinthians to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.07.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Corinthians	Fluminense
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	8
Draws	6	8
Losses	8	4
Goals scored	21	30
Goals conceded	21	26
Scored per game	1.1	1.5
Conceded per game	1.1	1.3
Home record	4W 3D 4L	7W 3D 1L
Away record	2W 3D 4L	1W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	40%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	66%	1.52
Over 2.5 goals	38%	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	18%	5.42
Both teams to score	46%	2.19
Corinthians or Draw	68%	1.46
Fluminense or Draw	62%	1.61
Corinthians to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.40
Fluminense to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.64
Corinthians clean sheet	35%	2.85
Fluminense clean sheet	31%	3.23

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%

1-011.9%

0-011.7%

0-110.6%

2-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Corinthians vs Fluminense?

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Fluminense is Corinthians to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Corinthians vs Fluminense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Corinthians to score 1.2 goals and Fluminense 1.1.

Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Fluminense?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Corinthians last 20 games and 15 of Fluminense last 20.

How are Corinthians playing?

How are Fluminense playing?

What happened when Corinthians and Fluminense last met?

It ended Fluminense 3, Corinthians 1. In the last 2 meetings Corinthians won 1 and Fluminense won 1.

What is the best bet for Corinthians vs Fluminense?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.