Predictions › Brasileirao › Coritiba vs Athletico-PR

BrasileiraoSat 12 Sept, 00:00 UTC

Coritiba vs Athletico-PR prediction

Couto Pereira

CoritibaHome

1.17 : 1.35

expected goals

Athletico-PRAway

32%Coritiba

28%Draw

40%Athletico-PR

Eagle safe pickCoritiba +0.5

1.59

Quick answer

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Athletico-PR is Athletico-PR to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Coritiba +0.5 at 1.59.

Prediction: Athletico-PR to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Coritiba 1.2, Athletico-PR 1.4
Best bet: Coritiba +0.5 at 1.59
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Coritiba +0.5

60% chancePrice 1.591 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Coritiba to win

32% chancePrice 3.15+0.3% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Coritiba 32%, the draw 28% and Athletico-PR 40%. The bookmakers agree and make Athletico-PR the favourite at 2.35.
2
Recent form
Coritiba took 10 points from their last 5 games and Athletico-PR took 8 from 5. Coritiba come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Coritiba won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Athletico-PR won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Coritiba score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Athletico-PR score 1.5 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Coritiba games and 9 of Athletico-PR games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Coritiba won 0 and Athletico-PR won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Athletico-PR 2, Coritiba 0.
6
The safest bet
Coritiba +0.5 has a 60% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Coritiba vs Athletico-PR: Athletico-PR shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Coritiba host Athletico-PR in the Brasileirao on Sat 12 Sept, 00:00 at Couto Pereira. Our prediction for Coritiba vs Athletico-PR is Athletico-PR to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Coritiba +0.5 at 1.59.

Coritiba form

Coritiba have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Athletico-PR form

Athletico-PR have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Coritiba won 0, Athletico-PR won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Athletico-PR 2, Coritiba 0.

Our call

We expect Coritiba to score about 1.2 goals and Athletico-PR about 1.4. That points to Athletico-PR to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Coritiba +0.5 at 1.59. Our bold bet is Coritiba to win at 3.15.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Coritiba	Athletico-PR
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	10
Draws	6	5
Losses	7	5
Goals scored	26	30
Goals conceded	29	21
Scored per game	1.3	1.5
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	4W 3D 3L	6W 4D 0L
Away record	3W 3D 4L	4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	35%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Coritiba to win	32%	3.17	3.15	-0.5%
A Draw	28%	3.53	3.15	-10.8%
Athletico-PR to win	40%	2.49	2.35	-5.8%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.22	2.10	-5.5%
Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.82	1.69	-7.0%
Coritiba +0.5	59%	1.69	1.59	-6.3%
Athletico-PR -0.5	41%	2.44	2.25	-7.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.18
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.08
Both teams to score	52%	1.94
Coritiba or Draw	60%	1.67
Athletico-PR or Draw	68%	1.46
Coritiba to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.76
Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.43
Coritiba clean sheet	26%	3.84
Athletico-PR clean sheet	31%	3.21

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%

0-110.2%

0-08.9%

1-08.7%

1-28.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Coritiba vs Athletico-PR?

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Athletico-PR is Athletico-PR to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Coritiba +0.5 at 1.59.

What is the score prediction for Coritiba vs Athletico-PR?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Coritiba to score 1.2 goals and Athletico-PR 1.4.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Athletico-PR?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Coritiba last 20 games and 10 of Athletico-PR last 20.

How are Coritiba playing?

How are Athletico-PR playing?

What happened when Coritiba and Athletico-PR last met?

It ended Athletico-PR 2, Coritiba 0. In the last 1 meeting Coritiba won 0 and Athletico-PR won 1.

What is the best bet for Coritiba vs Athletico-PR?

Coritiba +0.5 at 1.59, with a 60% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.