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Predictions › United Kingdom › Coventry City vs Aston Villa
Carabao CupWed 16 Sept, 20:00 United Kingdom time

Coventry City vs Aston Villa prediction

Coventry Building Society Arena

Coventry CityHome
1.36 : 1.62
expected goals
Aston VillaAway
32%Coventry
26%Draw
43%Aston Villa
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Coventry City vs Aston Villa is Aston Villa to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Aston Villa to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Coventry City 1.4, Aston Villa 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Aston Villa to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 5/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Coventry City 32%, the draw 26% and Aston Villa 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Aston Villa the favourite at 11/10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Coventry City took 6 points from their last 5 games and Aston Villa took 7 from 5. Aston Villa come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Coventry City won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Aston Villa won 5 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Coventry City score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.8. Aston Villa score 1.9 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Coventry City games and 12 of Aston Villa games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Coventry City vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Coventry City host Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup on Wed 16 Sept, 20:00 at Coventry Building Society Arena. Our prediction for Coventry City vs Aston Villa is Aston Villa to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Coventry City form

Coventry City have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Aston Villa form

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Coventry City to score about 1.4 goals and Aston Villa about 1.6. That points to Aston Villa to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Aston Villa to win and Over 2.5 at 5/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CoventryAston Villa
Games played2020
Wins1211
Draws43
Losses46
Goals scored3837
Goals conceded1724
Scored per game1.91.9
Conceded per game0.81.2
Home record6W 2D 2L6W 0D 2L
Away record6W 2D 2L5W 3D 4L
Clean sheets40%35%
Both teams scored45%45%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Coventry City to win32%11/52/1-6.9%
A Draw26%3/15/2-11.9%
Aston Villa to win43%11/811/10-7.8%
Over 2.5 goals57%8/118/13-6.7%
Under 2.5 goals43%11/86/5-6.3%
Coventry City +0.557%4/58/13-8.0%
Aston Villa -0.543%5/411/10-8.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1/4
Over 2.5 goals57%8/11
Over 3.5 goals35%15/8
Both teams to score60%4/6
Coventry City or Draw57%8/11
Aston Villa or Draw68%4/9
Coventry City to win and Over 2.521%4/1
Aston Villa to win and Over 2.529%5/2
Coventry City clean sheet20%4/1
Aston Villa clean sheet26%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
1-29.1%
2-17.6%
0-17.6%
0-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Coventry City vs Aston Villa?

Our prediction for Coventry City vs Aston Villa is Aston Villa to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Coventry City vs Aston Villa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Coventry City to score 1.4 goals and Aston Villa 1.6.

Will both teams score in Coventry City vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Coventry City last 20 games and 9 of Aston Villa last 20.

How are Coventry City playing?

Coventry City have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Aston Villa playing?

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Coventry City vs Aston Villa?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.