Predictions › Liga MX › Cruz Azul vs América

Liga MXSun 13 Sept, 03:15 UTC

Cruz Azul vs América prediction

Estadio Banorte

Cruz AzulHome

1.28 : 1.38

expected goals

AméricaAway

34%Cruz Azul

27%Draw

39%América

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cruz Azul vs América is América to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: América to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Cruz Azul 1.3, América 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.641 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Cruz Azul 34%, the draw 27% and América 39%. The bookmakers agree and make América the favourite at 2.35.
2
Recent form
Cruz Azul took 6 points from their last 5 games and América took 13 from 5. América come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Cruz Azul won 4 of their last 10 games at home. América won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Cruz Azul score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. América score 1.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Cruz Azul games and 11 of América games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Cruz Azul won 1 and América won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended América 1, Cruz Azul 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Cruz Azul vs América: América shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cruz Azul host América in the Liga MX on Sun 13 Sept, 03:15 at Estadio Banorte. Our prediction for Cruz Azul vs América is América to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Cruz Azul form

Cruz Azul have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

América form

América have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Cruz Azul won 1, América won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished América 1, Cruz Azul 1.

Our call

We expect Cruz Azul to score about 1.3 goals and América about 1.4. That points to América to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.64.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Cruz Azul	América
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	10
Draws	7	5
Losses	4	5
Goals scored	33	35
Goals conceded	26	23
Scored per game	1.6	1.8
Conceded per game	1.3	1.1
Home record	4W 3D 3L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	5W 4D 1L	5W 3D 2L
Clean sheets	15%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Cruz Azul to win	34%	2.96	2.85	-3.6%
A Draw	27%	3.64	3.45	-5.2%
América to win	39%	2.58	2.35	-9.1%
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.96	1.80	-8.3%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.91	-6.3%
Cruz Azul +0.5	59%	1.68	1.56	-7.6%
América -0.5	41%	2.46	2.20	-10.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.61
Both teams to score	55%	1.83
Cruz Azul or Draw	61%	1.63
América or Draw	66%	1.51
Cruz Azul to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.02
América to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.33
Cruz Azul clean sheet	25%	3.99
América clean sheet	28%	3.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

0-18.9%

1-28.5%

1-08.2%

2-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cruz Azul vs América?

Our prediction for Cruz Azul vs América is América to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Cruz Azul vs América?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Cruz Azul to score 1.3 goals and América 1.4.

Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs América?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Cruz Azul last 20 games and 11 of América last 20.

How are Cruz Azul playing?

How are América playing?

What happened when Cruz Azul and América last met?

It ended América 1, Cruz Azul 1. In the last 2 meetings Cruz Azul won 1 and América won 0.

What is the best bet for Cruz Azul vs América?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.