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Predictions › Europa League › Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan
Europa LeagueThu 17 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan prediction

Selhurst Park

Crystal PalaceHome
1.92 : 0.92
expected goals
Lech PoznanAway
60%C Palace
23%Draw
17%Lech Poznan
Eagle safe pickCrystal Palace or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan is Crystal Palace to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Crystal Palace or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
Crystal Palace to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Crystal Palace 1.9, Lech Poznan 0.9
Best bet
Crystal Palace or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Crystal Palace or Draw
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Crystal Palace to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Crystal Palace 60%, the draw 23% and Lech Poznan 17%. The bookmakers agree and make Crystal Palace the favourite at 1.43.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Crystal Palace took 9 points from their last 5 games and Lech Poznan took 12 from 5. Lech Poznan come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Crystal Palace won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Lech Poznan won 3 of their last 5 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Crystal Palace score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Lech Poznan score 1.8 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Crystal Palace games and 6 of Lech Poznan games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Crystal Palace or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan: Crystal Palace are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Crystal Palace host Lech Poznan in the Europa League on Thu 17 Sept, 19:00 at Selhurst Park. Our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan is Crystal Palace to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Crystal Palace or Draw at 1.21.

Crystal Palace form

Crystal Palace have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Lech Poznan form

Lech Poznan have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 10 games, with 18 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Crystal Palace to score about 1.9 goals and Lech Poznan about 0.9. That points to Crystal Palace to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Crystal Palace or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Crystal Palace to win and Over 2.5 at 2.58.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

C PalaceLech Poznan
Games played2010
Wins86
Draws51
Losses73
Goals scored2718
Goals conceded2912
Scored per game1.41.8
Conceded per game1.41.2
Home record5W 4D 2L3W 1D 1L
Away record3W 1D 5L3W 0D 2L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored55%70%
Over 2.5 goals75%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Crystal Palace to win60%1.671.43-14.4%
A Draw23%4.354.80+10.4%
Lech Poznan to win17%5.897.00+18.9%
Over 2.5 goals56%1.801.67-7.2%
Under 2.5 goals44%2.252.15-4.6%
Crystal Palace -1.541%2.422.10-13.1%
Lech Poznan +1.559%1.711.63-4.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.85
Over 3.5 goals32%3.15
Both teams to score52%1.92
Crystal Palace or Draw83%1.20
Lech Poznan or Draw40%2.50
Crystal Palace to win and Over 2.539%2.58
Lech Poznan to win and Over 2.510%10.28
Crystal Palace clean sheet40%2.52
Lech Poznan clean sheet15%6.81

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%
2-010.7%
1-010.6%
2-19.9%
3-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?

Our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan is Crystal Palace to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Crystal Palace or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-0. We expect Crystal Palace to score 1.9 goals and Lech Poznan 0.9.

Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Crystal Palace last 20 games and 7 of Lech Poznan last 10.

How are Crystal Palace playing?

Crystal Palace have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Lech Poznan playing?

Lech Poznan have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 10 games, with 18 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?

Crystal Palace or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.