Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Wings +6.5

75% chanceFair price -2991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Phoenix Mercury 47% and Dallas Wings 53%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Phoenix Mercury won 1 of their last 5 and Dallas Wings won 4 of their last 5. Dallas Wings come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Phoenix Mercury won 4 of their last 12 games at home. Dallas Wings won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Phoenix Mercury score 84.4 points a game and let in 87.7. Dallas Wings score 89.7 and let in 85.2. Their recent games average 172.1 and 174.9 points in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 2 meetings, Phoenix Mercury won 0 and Dallas Wings won 2. The last one ended Dallas Wings 85, Phoenix Mercury 70.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Wings +6.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Mercury +3.5 wins if Mercury win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.