Predictions › Argentina Liga Profesional › Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)

Argentina Liga ProfesionalFri 11 Sept, 22:15 UTC

Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia (Mendoza) prediction

Norberto Tomaghello

Defensa y JusticiaHome

1.41 : 1.06

expected goals

Gimnasia (Mendoza)Away

44%Def. y Jus.

28%Draw

27%Gimnasia (M)

Quick answer

Our prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia (Mendoza) is Defensa y Justicia to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1.

Prediction: Defensa y Justicia to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Defensa y Justicia 1.4, Gimnasia (Mendoza) 1.1
Best bet: No bet for now
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

Picks are made up to two hours before kick off and then locked, so there are none for this game.

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Defensa y Justicia 44%, the draw 28% and Gimnasia (Mendoza) 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Defensa y Justicia the favourite at 2.00.
2
Recent form
Defensa y Justicia took 10 points from their last 5 games and Gimnasia (Mendoza) took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Defensa y Justicia won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Gimnasia (Mendoza) won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Defensa y Justicia score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Gimnasia (Mendoza) score 1.3 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Defensa y Justicia games and 9 of Gimnasia (Mendoza) games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Defensa y Justicia won 0 and Gimnasia (Mendoza) won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Gimnasia (Mendoza) 2, Defensa y Justicia 1.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia (Mendoza): Defensa y Justicia shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Defensa y Justicia host Gimnasia (Mendoza) in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Fri 11 Sept, 22:15 at Norberto Tomaghello. Our prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia (Mendoza) is Defensa y Justicia to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1.

Defensa y Justicia form

Defensa y Justicia have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Gimnasia (Mendoza) form

Gimnasia (Mendoza) have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Defensa y Justicia won 0, Gimnasia (Mendoza) won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Gimnasia (Mendoza) 2, Defensa y Justicia 1.

Our call

We expect Defensa y Justicia to score about 1.4 goals and Gimnasia (Mendoza) about 1.1. That points to Defensa y Justicia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Def. y Jus.	Gimnasia (M)
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	8
Draws	7	5
Losses	7	7
Goals scored	23	26
Goals conceded	28	24
Scored per game	1.1	1.3
Conceded per game	1.4	1.2
Home record	4W 5D 2L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	2W 2D 5L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	15%	25%
Both teams scored	65%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Defensa y Justicia to win	44%	2.25	2.00	-11.2%
A Draw	28%	3.55	3.45	-2.8%
Gimnasia (Mendoza) to win	27%	3.65	3.75	+2.9%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.24	2.10	-6.2%
Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.81	1.69	-6.5%
Defensa y Justicia -0.5	47%	2.11	1.91	-9.7%
Gimnasia (Mendoza) +0.5	53%	1.90	1.80	-5.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.40
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.23
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.24
Both teams to score	50%	1.99
Defensa y Justicia or Draw	73%	1.38
Gimnasia (Mendoza) or Draw	56%	1.80
Defensa y Justicia to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.04
Gimnasia (Mendoza) to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.89
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet	35%	2.88
Gimnasia (Mendoza) clean sheet	24%	4.11

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%

1-011.2%

0-09.2%

2-18.9%

2-08.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)?

Our prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia (Mendoza) is Defensa y Justicia to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1.

What is the score prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Defensa y Justicia to score 1.4 goals and Gimnasia (Mendoza) 1.1.

Will both teams score in Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Defensa y Justicia last 20 games and 11 of Gimnasia (Mendoza) last 20.

How are Defensa y Justicia playing?

How are Gimnasia (Mendoza) playing?

What happened when Defensa y Justicia and Gimnasia (Mendoza) last met?

It ended Gimnasia (Mendoza) 2, Defensa y Justicia 1. In the last 1 meeting Defensa y Justicia won 0 and Gimnasia (Mendoza) won 1.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.