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Predictions › United States › Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
NFLMon 14 Sept, 20:15 United States time

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction

Arrowhead Stadium

Denver BroncosAway
20.5 : 21.8
projected points
Kansas City ChiefsHome
44%Broncos
56%Chiefs
Eagle value pickBroncos +2.5
-102

Quick answer

Our prediction for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Denver Broncos 20.5 and Kansas City Chiefs 21.8. Our best bet is Broncos +2.5 at -102.

Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Chance
56%
Projected score
Denver Broncos 20, Kansas City Chiefs 22
Projected total
42.3 points
Best bet
Broncos +2.5 at -102

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 50.5 points
74% chanceFair price -2791 unit
★

Eagle value pick

Broncos +2.5
53% chancePrice -102+5.8% value2 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Broncos to win
44% chancePrice +1241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Kansas City Chiefs 56% and Denver Broncos 44%. The bookmakers agree and make Kansas City Chiefs the favourite at -148.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Kansas City Chiefs won 0 of their last 5 and Denver Broncos won 3 of their last 5. Denver Broncos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Kansas City Chiefs won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Denver Broncos won 7 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Kansas City Chiefs score 19.8 points a game and let in 18.2. Denver Broncos score 23.4 and let in 17.8. Their recent games average 38.1 and 41.1 points in total, and the market line is 43.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Kansas City Chiefs won 0 and Denver Broncos won 2. The last one ended Kansas City Chiefs 13, Denver Broncos 20.

  6. 6
    Where the value is

    Broncos +2.5 is priced at -102. Our fair price is -115, so the bookmaker pays about 5.8% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Kansas City Chiefs host Denver Broncos in the NFL on Mon 14 Sept, 20:15 at Arrowhead Stadium. Our prediction for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Denver Broncos 20.5 and Kansas City Chiefs 21.8. Our best bet is Broncos +2.5 at -102.

Kansas City Chiefs form

Kansas City Chiefs have 6 wins and 12 losses in their last 19 games, with 377 points scored and 346 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Denver Broncos form

Denver Broncos have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 467 points scored and 356 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Kansas City Chiefs won 0, Denver Broncos won 2. Last time out it finished Kansas City Chiefs 13, Denver Broncos 20.

Our call

We expect Denver Broncos to score about 20.5 points and Kansas City Chiefs about 21.8. That points to Kansas City Chiefs to win. Our safest bet is Under 50.5 points at -279. Our value bet is Broncos +2.5 at -102. Our bold bet is Broncos to win at +124.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ChiefsBroncos
Games played1920
Wins616
Losses124
Points scored377467
Points conceded346356
Scored per game19.823.4
Conceded per game18.217.8
Home record5W 5L9W 3L
Away record1W 7L7W 1L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Chiefs to win56%-129-148-5.7%
Broncos to win44%+129+124-2.0%
Chiefs -2.547%+115-118-14.0%
Broncos +2.553%-115-102+5.8%
Over 43.5 points46%+116-115-13.5%
Under 43.5 points54%-116-105+4.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Chiefs spreadCoversFair
Chiefs -8.530%+236
Chiefs -4.541%+146
Chiefs -1.550%+102
Chiefs +1.558%-140
Chiefs +5.569%-226
Total pointsOverUnder
35.570%30%
39.558%42%
42.549%51%
45.540%60%
49.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Chiefs +3.5 wins if Chiefs win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs?

Our prediction for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Denver Broncos 20.5 and Kansas City Chiefs 21.8. Our best bet is Broncos +2.5 at -102.

What is the projected score for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs?

We project Denver Broncos 20.5 and Kansas City Chiefs 21.8, about 42.3 points in total.

How are Kansas City Chiefs playing?

Kansas City Chiefs have 6 wins and 12 losses in their last 19 games, with 377 points scored and 346 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Denver Broncos playing?

Denver Broncos have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 467 points scored and 356 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos last met?

It ended Kansas City Chiefs 13, Denver Broncos 20. In the last 2 meetings Kansas City Chiefs won 0 and Denver Broncos won 2.

What is the best bet for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs?

Broncos +2.5 at -102, with a 53% chance. That price pays about 5.8% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.