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Predictions › United Kingdom › Derby County vs Birmingham City
ChampionshipSat 12 Sept, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Derby County vs Birmingham City prediction

Pride Park

Derby CountyHome
1.09 : 1.27
expected goals
Birmingham CityAway
31%Derby
29%Draw
40%Birmingham
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Derby County vs Birmingham City is Birmingham City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Birmingham City to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Derby County 1.1, Birmingham City 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Derby County to win
31% chancePrice 13/5+11.0% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Derby County 31%, the draw 29% and Birmingham City 40%. The bookmakers agree and make Birmingham City the favourite at 11/10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Derby County took 4 points from their last 5 games and Birmingham City took 5 from 5. Birmingham City come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Derby County won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Birmingham City won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Derby County score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Birmingham City score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Derby County games and 9 of Birmingham City games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Derby County won 1 and Birmingham City won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Derby County 1, Birmingham City 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Derby County vs Birmingham City: Birmingham City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Derby County host Birmingham City in the Championship on Sat 12 Sept, 12:30 at Pride Park. Our prediction for Derby County vs Birmingham City is Birmingham City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

Derby County form

Derby County have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Birmingham City form

Birmingham City have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Derby County won 1, Birmingham City won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Derby County 1, Birmingham City 0.

Our call

We expect Derby County to score about 1.1 goals and Birmingham City about 1.3. That points to Birmingham City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Derby County to win at 13/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DerbyBirmingham
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws17
Losses117
Goals scored2622
Goals conceded3127
Scored per game1.31.1
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record5W 1D 4L4W 4D 3L
Away record3W 0D 7L2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored55%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Derby County to win31%9/413/5+11.0%
A Draw29%12/59/4-3.2%
Birmingham City to win40%6/411/10-14.3%
Over 2.5 goals45%5/421/20-8.2%
Under 2.5 goals55%4/58/11-3.9%
Derby County +0.556%4/54/6-4.7%
Birmingham City -0.544%5/421/20-10.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%4/9
Over 2.5 goals42%11/8
Over 3.5 goals21%7/2
Both teams to score49%21/20
Derby County or Draw60%4/6
Birmingham City or Draw69%4/9
Derby County to win and Over 2.516%11/2
Birmingham City to win and Over 2.521%4/1
Derby County clean sheet28%13/5
Birmingham City clean sheet34%2/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
0-111.2%
0-010.2%
1-09.5%
1-28.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Derby County vs Birmingham City?

Our prediction for Derby County vs Birmingham City is Birmingham City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Derby County vs Birmingham City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Derby County to score 1.1 goals and Birmingham City 1.3.

Will both teams score in Derby County vs Birmingham City?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Derby County last 20 games and 13 of Birmingham City last 20.

How are Derby County playing?

Derby County have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Birmingham City playing?

Birmingham City have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Derby County and Birmingham City last met?

It ended Derby County 1, Birmingham City 0. In the last 2 meetings Derby County won 1 and Birmingham City won 0.

What is the best bet for Derby County vs Birmingham City?

Under 3.5 goals at 2/7, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.