Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 58.5 points

73% chanceFair price -2701 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Under 51.5 points

53% chancePrice -105+3.4% value1 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lions to win

41% chancePrice +1361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Buffalo Bills 59% and Detroit Lions 41%. The bookmakers agree and make Buffalo Bills the favourite at -162.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Buffalo Bills won 4 of their last 5 and Detroit Lions won 3 of their last 5. Buffalo Bills come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Buffalo Bills won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Detroit Lions won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Buffalo Bills score 27.8 points a game and let in 21.0. Detroit Lions score 27.6 and let in 22.7. Their recent games average 48.8 and 50.3 points in total, and the market line is 51.5.

5. 5
   Where the value is

   Under 51.5 points is priced at -105. Our fair price is -113, so the bookmaker pays about 3.4% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Bills +3.5 wins if Bills win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.