Duke Blue Devils vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Illinois to win

67% chancePrice -2381 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Duke to win

33% chancePrice +1951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Illinois Fighting Illini 67% and Duke Blue Devils 33%. The bookmakers agree and make Illinois Fighting Illini the favourite at -238.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Illinois Fighting Illini won 4 of their last 5 and Duke Blue Devils won 5 of their last 5. Duke Blue Devils come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Illinois Fighting Illini won 7 of their last 8 games at home. Duke Blue Devils won 5 of their last 7 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Illinois Fighting Illini score 27.3 points a game and let in 25.7. Duke Blue Devils score 33.6 and let in 27.2. Their recent games average 52.9 and 60.8 points in total, and the market line is 51.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Illinois to win has a 67% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 13 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Illinois +3.5 wins if Illinois win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.