East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

North Carolina -25.5

73% chanceFair price -2761 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives North Carolina Tar Heels 99% and East Tennessee State Buccaneers 1%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   The safest bet

   North Carolina -25.5 has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 11 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. North Carolina +3.5 wins if North Carolina win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.