Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Michigan State Spartans prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

E Michigan +27.5

75% chanceFair price -2981 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Michigan State Spartans 86% and Eastern Michigan Eagles 14%. The bookmakers agree and make Michigan State Spartans the favourite at -901.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Michigan State Spartans won 2 of their last 5 and Eastern Michigan Eagles won 3 of their last 5. Eastern Michigan Eagles come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Michigan State Spartans won 3 of their last 6 games at home. Eastern Michigan Eagles won 1 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Michigan State Spartans score 23.6 points a game and let in 30.3. Eastern Michigan Eagles score 24.0 and let in 26.8. Their recent games average 53.9 and 50.8 points in total, and the market line is 49.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   E Michigan +27.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Michigan St +3.5 wins if Michigan St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.