Predictions › Eredivisie › Excelsior vs FC Utrecht

EredivisieSun 13 Sept, 10:15 UTC

Excelsior vs FC Utrecht prediction

Stadion Woudestein

ExcelsiorHome

1.62 : 1.40

expected goals

FC UtrechtAway

42%Excelsior

25%Draw

32%FC Utrecht

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Excelsior vs FC Utrecht is Excelsior to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Excelsior to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Excelsior 1.6, FC Utrecht 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Excelsior to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Excelsior 42%, the draw 25% and FC Utrecht 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Excelsior the favourite at 2.20.
2
Recent form
Excelsior took 10 points from their last 5 games and FC Utrecht took 2 from 5. Excelsior come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Excelsior won 2 of their last 9 games at home. FC Utrecht won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Excelsior score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. FC Utrecht score 1.9 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Excelsior games and 12 of FC Utrecht games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Excelsior won 1 and FC Utrecht won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Excelsior 5, FC Utrecht 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Excelsior vs FC Utrecht: Excelsior shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Excelsior host FC Utrecht in the Eredivisie on Sun 13 Sept, 10:15 at Stadion Woudestein. Our prediction for Excelsior vs FC Utrecht is Excelsior to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Excelsior form

Excelsior have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

FC Utrecht form

FC Utrecht have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Excelsior won 1, FC Utrecht won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Excelsior 5, FC Utrecht 0.

Our call

We expect Excelsior to score about 1.6 goals and FC Utrecht about 1.4. That points to Excelsior to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Excelsior to win and Over 2.5 at 3.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Excelsior	FC Utrecht
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	10
Draws	6	5
Losses	7	5
Goals scored	35	38
Goals conceded	26	35
Scored per game	1.8	1.9
Conceded per game	1.3	1.8
Home record	2W 2D 5L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	5W 4D 2L	4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Excelsior to win	42%	2.37	2.20	-7.3%
A Draw	25%	3.94	3.65	-7.4%
FC Utrecht to win	32%	3.08	2.95	-4.1%
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.70	1.57	-7.8%
Under 2.5 goals	41%	2.42	2.25	-7.0%
Excelsior -0.5	43%	2.32	2.10	-9.3%
FC Utrecht +0.5	57%	1.76	1.63	-7.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.72
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.80
Both teams to score	61%	1.64
Excelsior or Draw	68%	1.48
FC Utrecht or Draw	58%	1.73
Excelsior to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.51
FC Utrecht to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.64
Excelsior clean sheet	25%	4.06
FC Utrecht clean sheet	20%	5.06

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%

2-19.0%

1-27.7%

1-07.2%

2-06.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Excelsior vs FC Utrecht?

Our prediction for Excelsior vs FC Utrecht is Excelsior to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Excelsior vs FC Utrecht?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Excelsior to score 1.6 goals and FC Utrecht 1.4.

Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Utrecht?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Excelsior last 20 games and 13 of FC Utrecht last 20.

How are Excelsior playing?

How are FC Utrecht playing?

What happened when Excelsior and FC Utrecht last met?

It ended Excelsior 5, FC Utrecht 0. In the last 1 meeting Excelsior won 1 and FC Utrecht won 0.

What is the best bet for Excelsior vs FC Utrecht?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.