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Predictions › United Kingdom › Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian
Scottish PremiershipTue 15 Sept, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian prediction

Falkirk Stadium

FalkirkHome
1.24 : 1.76
expected goals
Heart of MidlothianAway
26%Falkirk
25%Draw
49%Hearts
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Heart of Midlothian to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Falkirk 1.2, Heart of Midlothian 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Falkirk 26%, the draw 25% and Heart of Midlothian 49%. The bookmakers agree and make Heart of Midlothian the favourite at 10/11.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Falkirk took 2 points from their last 5 games and Heart of Midlothian took 12 from 5. Heart of Midlothian come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Falkirk won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Heart of Midlothian won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Falkirk score 1.3 goals a game and let in 2.0. Heart of Midlothian score 1.8 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Falkirk games and 13 of Heart of Midlothian games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Falkirk won 0 and Heart of Midlothian won 4 with 0 draws. The last one ended Heart of Midlothian 3, Falkirk 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian: Heart of Midlothian are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Falkirk host Heart of Midlothian in the Scottish Premiership on Tue 15 Sept, 19:45 at Falkirk Stadium. Our prediction for Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Falkirk form

Falkirk have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Heart of Midlothian form

Heart of Midlothian have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Falkirk won 0, Heart of Midlothian won 4 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Heart of Midlothian 3, Falkirk 0.

Our call

We expect Falkirk to score about 1.2 goals and Heart of Midlothian about 1.8. That points to Heart of Midlothian to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FalkirkHearts
Games played2020
Wins513
Draws32
Losses125
Goals scored2635
Goals conceded4020
Scored per game1.31.8
Conceded per game2.01.0
Home record3W 0D 7L10W 0D 0L
Away record2W 3D 5L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals60%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Falkirk to win26%11/412/5-10.3%
A Draw25%3/113/5-9.8%
Heart of Midlothian to win49%21/2010/11-4.5%
Over 2.5 goals55%4/54/6-6.6%
Under 2.5 goals45%5/4Evens-10.5%
Falkirk +0.552%10/118/11-10.2%
Heart of Midlothian -0.548%21/205/6-9.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1/4
Over 2.5 goals58%8/11
Over 3.5 goals35%9/5
Both teams to score60%4/6
Falkirk or Draw51%Evens
Heart of Midlothian or Draw74%4/11
Falkirk to win and Over 2.517%5/1
Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.533%2/1
Falkirk clean sheet17%5/1
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet29%5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%
1-29.6%
0-18.1%
0-27.7%
2-16.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian?

Our prediction for Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Falkirk to score 1.2 goals and Heart of Midlothian 1.8.

Will both teams score in Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Falkirk last 20 games and 11 of Heart of Midlothian last 20.

How are Falkirk playing?

Falkirk have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Heart of Midlothian playing?

Heart of Midlothian have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Falkirk and Heart of Midlothian last met?

It ended Heart of Midlothian 3, Falkirk 0. In the last 4 meetings Falkirk won 0 and Heart of Midlothian won 4.

What is the best bet for Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.