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Predictions › Primeira Liga › FC Porto vs Benfica
Primeira LigaSun 20 Sept, 19:30 UTC

FC Porto vs Benfica prediction

Estádio do Dragão

FC PortoHome
1.00 : 1.22
expected goals
BenficaAway
29%FC Porto
30%Draw
40%Benfica
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Porto vs Benfica is Benfica to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Benfica to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Porto 1.0, Benfica 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.121 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Porto 29%, the draw 30% and Benfica 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Porto took 12 points from their last 5 games and Benfica took 13 from 5. Benfica come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Porto won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Benfica won 8 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Porto score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Benfica score 2.5 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of FC Porto games and 17 of Benfica games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, FC Porto won 0 and Benfica won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Benfica 2, FC Porto 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

FC Porto vs Benfica: Benfica shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Porto host Benfica in the Primeira Liga on Sun 20 Sept, 19:30 at Estádio do Dragão. Our prediction for FC Porto vs Benfica is Benfica to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

FC Porto form

FC Porto have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Benfica form

Benfica have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Porto won 0, Benfica won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Benfica 2, FC Porto 2.

Our call

We expect FC Porto to score about 1.0 goals and Benfica about 1.2. That points to Benfica to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.12.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FC PortoBenfica
Games played2020
Wins1413
Draws35
Losses32
Goals scored3549
Goals conceded1619
Scored per game1.82.5
Conceded per game0.80.9
Home record8W 2D 1L5W 3D 1L
Away record6W 1D 2L8W 2D 1L
Clean sheets45%30%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals50%85%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.52
Over 2.5 goals38%2.61
Over 3.5 goals18%5.41
Both teams to score45%2.20
FC Porto or Draw60%1.68
Benfica or Draw71%1.41
FC Porto to win and Over 2.514%7.25
Benfica to win and Over 2.520%5.03
FC Porto clean sheet29%3.40
Benfica clean sheet37%2.72

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
0-112.5%
0-011.6%
1-010.0%
0-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Porto vs Benfica?

Our prediction for FC Porto vs Benfica is Benfica to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for FC Porto vs Benfica?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect FC Porto to score 1.0 goals and Benfica 1.2.

Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Benfica?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of FC Porto last 20 games and 13 of Benfica last 20.

How are FC Porto playing?

FC Porto have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Benfica playing?

Benfica have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when FC Porto and Benfica last met?

It ended Benfica 2, FC Porto 2. In the last 2 meetings FC Porto won 0 and Benfica won 0.

What is the best bet for FC Porto vs Benfica?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.