Predictions › Serie A › Fiorentina vs Napoli

Serie ASun 20 Sept, 10:30 UTC

Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction

Stadio Artemio Franchi

FiorentinaHome

1.06 : 1.44

expected goals

NapoliAway

27%Fiorentina

28%Draw

45%Napoli

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Napoli is Napoli to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Napoli to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.1, Napoli 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Napoli to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 3.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Fiorentina 27%, the draw 28% and Napoli 45%. The bookmakers agree and make Napoli the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Fiorentina took 4 points from their last 5 games and Napoli took 6 from 5. Napoli come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Fiorentina won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Napoli won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Fiorentina score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Napoli score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Fiorentina games and 12 of Napoli games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Fiorentina won 0 and Napoli won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Napoli 2, Fiorentina 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Fiorentina vs Napoli: Napoli shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fiorentina host Napoli in the Serie A on Sun 20 Sept, 10:30 at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Napoli is Napoli to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Fiorentina form

Fiorentina have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Napoli form

Napoli have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Fiorentina won 0, Napoli won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Napoli 2, Fiorentina 1.

Our call

We expect Fiorentina to score about 1.1 goals and Napoli about 1.4. That points to Napoli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Napoli to win and Over 2.5 at 3.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Fiorentina	Napoli
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	11
Draws	6	3
Losses	6	6
Goals scored	22	32
Goals conceded	28	22
Scored per game	1.1	1.6
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	3W 5D 2L	6W 1D 4L
Away record	5W 1D 4L	5W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	30%	35%
Both teams scored	45%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Fiorentina to win	27%	3.68	3.10	-15.8%
A Draw	28%	3.58	3.20	-10.6%
Napoli to win	45%	2.23	2.05	-7.9%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.10	1.91	-9.0%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	1.91	1.80	-5.8%
Fiorentina +0.5	56%	1.80	1.63	-9.7%
Napoli -0.5	44%	2.25	2.05	-8.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.39
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.19
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.12
Both teams to score	51%	1.97
Fiorentina or Draw	55%	1.82
Napoli or Draw	73%	1.37
Fiorentina to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.87
Napoli to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.94
Fiorentina clean sheet	24%	4.21
Napoli clean sheet	35%	2.90

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

0-111.0%

1-29.0%

0-08.9%

0-28.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fiorentina vs Napoli?

Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Napoli is Napoli to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Fiorentina vs Napoli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Fiorentina to score 1.1 goals and Napoli 1.4.

Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Napoli?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Fiorentina last 20 games and 11 of Napoli last 20.

How are Fiorentina playing?

How are Napoli playing?

What happened when Fiorentina and Napoli last met?

It ended Napoli 2, Fiorentina 1. In the last 2 meetings Fiorentina won 0 and Napoli won 2.

What is the best bet for Fiorentina vs Napoli?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.