Predictions › Brasileirao › Flamengo vs Corinthians

BrasileiraoSun 13 Sept, 20:30 UTC

Flamengo vs Corinthians prediction

Estadio do Maracana

FlamengoHome

1.87 : 0.71

expected goals

CorinthiansAway

64%Flamengo

23%Draw

13%Corinthians

Eagle safe pickFlamengo draw no bet

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Corinthians is Flamengo to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Flamengo draw no bet at 1.20.

Prediction: Flamengo to win
Chance: 64%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Flamengo 1.9, Corinthians 0.7
Best bet: Flamengo draw no bet at 1.20
Both teams to score: 44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Flamengo draw no bet

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flamengo to win and Over 2.5

38% chanceFair price 2.671 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Flamengo 64%, the draw 23% and Corinthians 13%. The bookmakers agree and make Flamengo the favourite at 1.40.
2
Recent form
Flamengo took 12 points from their last 5 games and Corinthians took 3 from 5. Flamengo come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Flamengo won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Corinthians won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Flamengo score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.8. Corinthians score 1.1 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Flamengo games and 9 of Corinthians games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Flamengo won 1 and Corinthians won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Corinthians 1, Flamengo 1.
6
The safest bet
Flamengo draw no bet has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Flamengo vs Corinthians: Flamengo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Flamengo host Corinthians in the Brasileirao on Sun 13 Sept, 20:30 at Estadio do Maracana. Our prediction for Flamengo vs Corinthians is Flamengo to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Flamengo draw no bet at 1.20.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Corinthians form

Corinthians have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Flamengo won 1, Corinthians won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Corinthians 1, Flamengo 1.

Our call

We expect Flamengo to score about 1.9 goals and Corinthians about 0.7. That points to Flamengo to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Flamengo draw no bet at 1.20. Our bold bet is Flamengo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.67.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Flamengo	Corinthians
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	6
Draws	5	6
Losses	3	8
Goals scored	39	21
Goals conceded	17	21
Scored per game	1.9	1.1
Conceded per game	0.8	1.1
Home record	6W 2D 1L	4W 3D 4L
Away record	6W 3D 2L	2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	45%	40%
Both teams scored	45%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Flamengo to win	64%	1.56	1.40	-10.0%
A Draw	23%	4.39	4.50	+2.4%
Corinthians to win	13%	7.73	7.50	-3.0%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.03	1.83	-9.7%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	1.97	1.83	-7.0%
Flamengo -1.5	42%	2.37	2.10	-11.3%
Corinthians +1.5	58%	1.73	1.63	-6.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.86
Both teams to score	44%	2.29
Flamengo or Draw	87%	1.15
Corinthians or Draw	36%	2.80
Flamengo to win and Over 2.5	38%	2.67
Corinthians to win and Over 2.5	6%	16.07
Flamengo clean sheet	49%	2.04
Corinthians clean sheet	15%	6.47

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.6%

2-013.2%

1-110.7%

2-19.4%

3-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Flamengo vs Corinthians?

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Corinthians is Flamengo to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Flamengo draw no bet at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Flamengo vs Corinthians?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Flamengo to score 1.9 goals and Corinthians 0.7.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Flamengo last 20 games and 10 of Corinthians last 20.

How are Flamengo playing?

How are Corinthians playing?

What happened when Flamengo and Corinthians last met?

It ended Corinthians 1, Flamengo 1. In the last 2 meetings Flamengo won 1 and Corinthians won 0.

What is the best bet for Flamengo vs Corinthians?

Flamengo draw no bet at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.