Florida Gators vs Auburn Tigers prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Under 61.5 points

75% chanceFair price -2991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Auburn Tigers 45% and Florida Gators 55%. The bookmakers agree and make Florida Gators the favourite at -135.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Auburn Tigers won 2 of their last 5 and Florida Gators won 2 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Auburn Tigers won 3 of their last 7 games at home. Florida Gators won 0 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Auburn Tigers score 23.5 points a game and let in 21.5. Florida Gators score 23.1 and let in 26.5. Their recent games average 45.0 and 49.5 points in total, and the market line is 51.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Under 61.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 11 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Auburn +3.5 wins if Auburn win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.