Florida State Seminoles vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Florida St +27.5

74% chanceFair price -2821 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Alabama Crimson Tide 87% and Florida State Seminoles 13%. The bookmakers agree and make Alabama Crimson Tide the favourite at -952.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Alabama Crimson Tide won 3 of their last 5 and Florida State Seminoles won 2 of their last 5. Alabama Crimson Tide come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Alabama Crimson Tide won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Florida State Seminoles won 0 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Alabama Crimson Tide score 28.6 points a game and let in 19.1. Florida State Seminoles score 28.8 and let in 24.0. Their recent games average 47.7 and 52.8 points in total, and the market line is 50.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Florida St +27.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 14 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Alabama +3.5 wins if Alabama win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.