Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Under 53.5 points

73% chanceFair price -2751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Minnesota Vikings 54% and Green Bay Packers 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Minnesota Vikings the favourite at -125.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Minnesota Vikings won 3 of their last 5 and Green Bay Packers won 2 of their last 5. Minnesota Vikings come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Minnesota Vikings won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Green Bay Packers won 5 of their last 12 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Minnesota Vikings score 17.8 points a game and let in 19.3. Green Bay Packers score 23.8 and let in 22.9. Their recent games average 37.1 and 46.6 points in total, and the market line is 46.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 2 meetings, Minnesota Vikings won 1 and Green Bay Packers won 1. The last one ended Minnesota Vikings 16, Green Bay Packers 3.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Under 53.5 points has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Vikings +3.5 wins if Vikings win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.