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BrasileiraoSun 20 Sept, 14:00 UTC

Grêmio vs Palmeiras prediction

Arena do Grêmio

GrêmioHome

1.22 : 1.59

expected goals

PalmeirasAway

29%Grêmio

26%Draw

45%Palmeiras

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Palmeiras to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Grêmio 1.2, Palmeiras 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Grêmio 29%, the draw 26% and Palmeiras 45%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Grêmio took 6 points from their last 5 games and Palmeiras took 6 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Grêmio won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Palmeiras won 6 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Grêmio score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.2. Palmeiras score 1.6 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Grêmio games and 9 of Palmeiras games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Grêmio won 1 and Palmeiras won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Palmeiras 2, Grêmio 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Grêmio vs Palmeiras: Palmeiras are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Grêmio host Palmeiras in the Brasileirao on Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 at Arena do Grêmio. Our prediction for Grêmio vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Grêmio form

Grêmio have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Grêmio won 1, Palmeiras won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Palmeiras 2, Grêmio 1.

Our call

We expect Grêmio to score about 1.2 goals and Palmeiras about 1.6. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5 at 3.47.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Grêmio	Palmeiras
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	11
Draws	6	7
Losses	9	2
Goals scored	18	31
Goals conceded	24	14
Scored per game	0.9	1.6
Conceded per game	1.2	0.7
Home record	5W 2D 2L	5W 3D 1L
Away record	0W 4D 7L	6W 4D 1L
Clean sheets	25%	45%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.87
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.21
Both teams to score	57%	1.76
Grêmio or Draw	55%	1.83
Palmeiras or Draw	71%	1.40
Grêmio to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.72
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.47
Grêmio clean sheet	20%	4.92
Palmeiras clean sheet	29%	3.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%

1-29.3%

0-18.9%

0-27.6%

2-17.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Grêmio vs Palmeiras?

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Grêmio vs Palmeiras?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Grêmio to score 1.2 goals and Palmeiras 1.6.

Will both teams score in Grêmio vs Palmeiras?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Grêmio last 20 games and 11 of Palmeiras last 20.

How are Grêmio playing?

How are Palmeiras playing?

What happened when Grêmio and Palmeiras last met?

It ended Palmeiras 2, Grêmio 1. In the last 2 meetings Grêmio won 1 and Palmeiras won 1.

What is the best bet for Grêmio vs Palmeiras?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.