Predictions › Brasileirao › Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama

BrasileiraoSat 12 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama prediction

Arena do Grêmio

GrêmioHome

1.48 : 1.10

expected goals

Vasco da GamaAway

45%Grêmio

27%Draw

28%Vasco

Eagle value pickGrêmio to win

2.50

Quick answer

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama is Grêmio to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Grêmio to win at 2.50.

Prediction: Grêmio to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Grêmio 1.5, Vasco da Gama 1.1
Best bet: Grêmio to win at 2.50
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

74% chanceFair price 1.351 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Grêmio to win

45% chancePrice 2.50+12.4% value2 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Grêmio to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.811 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Grêmio 45%, the draw 27% and Vasco da Gama 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Grêmio the favourite at 2.50.
2
Recent form
Grêmio took 6 points from their last 5 games and Vasco da Gama took 4 from 5. Grêmio come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Grêmio won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Vasco da Gama won 0 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Grêmio score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.2. Vasco da Gama score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Grêmio games and 11 of Vasco da Gama games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Grêmio won 1 and Vasco da Gama won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vasco da Gama 2, Grêmio 1.
6
Where the value is
Grêmio to win is priced at 2.50. Our fair price is 2.22, so the bookmaker pays about 12.4% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama: Grêmio shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Grêmio host Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirao on Sat 12 Sept, 19:00 at Arena do Grêmio. Our prediction for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama is Grêmio to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Grêmio to win at 2.50.

Grêmio form

Grêmio have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Grêmio won 1, Vasco da Gama won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Vasco da Gama 2, Grêmio 1.

Our call

We expect Grêmio to score about 1.5 goals and Vasco da Gama about 1.1. That points to Grêmio to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.35. Our value bet is Grêmio to win at 2.50. Our bold bet is Grêmio to win and Over 2.5 at 3.81.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Grêmio	Vasco
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	5
Draws	6	6
Losses	9	9
Goals scored	18	22
Goals conceded	24	33
Scored per game	0.9	1.1
Conceded per game	1.2	1.6
Home record	5W 2D 2L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	0W 4D 7L	0W 5D 5L
Clean sheets	25%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Grêmio to win	45%	2.22	2.50	+12.4%
A Draw	27%	3.64	3.30	-9.4%
Vasco da Gama to win	28%	3.63	2.85	-21.4%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.13	2.00	-6.3%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.88	1.74	-7.5%
Grêmio -0.5	40%	2.47	2.40	-3.0%
Vasco da Gama +0.5	60%	1.68	1.50	-10.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.85
Both teams to score	52%	1.91
Grêmio or Draw	72%	1.38
Vasco da Gama or Draw	55%	1.82
Grêmio to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.81
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.52
Grêmio clean sheet	33%	3.02
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	23%	4.37

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

1-010.4%

2-19.1%

0-08.3%

2-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama is Grêmio to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Grêmio to win at 2.50.

What is the score prediction for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Grêmio to score 1.5 goals and Vasco da Gama 1.1.

Will both teams score in Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Grêmio last 20 games and 12 of Vasco da Gama last 20.

How are Grêmio playing?

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

What happened when Grêmio and Vasco da Gama last met?

It ended Vasco da Gama 2, Grêmio 1. In the last 2 meetings Grêmio won 1 and Vasco da Gama won 1.

What is the best bet for Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama?

Grêmio to win at 2.50, with a 45% chance. That price pays about 12.4% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.