Predictions › Liga MX › Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM

Liga MXMon 14 Sept, 01:07 UTC

Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM prediction

Estadio Akron

GuadalajaraHome

1.93 : 1.02

expected goals

Pumas UNAMAway

58%Guadalajara

23%Draw

19%UNAM

Eagle safe pickGuadalajara or Draw

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM is Guadalajara to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction: Guadalajara to win
Chance: 58%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Guadalajara 1.9, Pumas UNAM 1.0
Best bet: Guadalajara or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Guadalajara or Draw

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5

39% chanceFair price 2.591 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Guadalajara 58%, the draw 23% and Pumas UNAM 19%. The bookmakers agree and make Guadalajara the favourite at 1.50.
2
Recent form
Guadalajara took 11 points from their last 5 games and Pumas UNAM took 8 from 5. Guadalajara come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Guadalajara won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Pumas UNAM won 4 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Guadalajara score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.1. Pumas UNAM score 1.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Guadalajara games and 11 of Pumas UNAM games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Guadalajara won 1 and Pumas UNAM won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Guadalajara 2, Pumas UNAM 2.
6
The safest bet
Guadalajara or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM: Guadalajara are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Guadalajara host Pumas UNAM in the Liga MX on Mon 14 Sept, 01:07 at Estadio Akron. Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM is Guadalajara to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.23.

Guadalajara form

Guadalajara have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Pumas UNAM form

Pumas UNAM have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Guadalajara won 1, Pumas UNAM won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Guadalajara 2, Pumas UNAM 2.

Our call

We expect Guadalajara to score about 1.9 goals and Pumas UNAM about 1.0. That points to Guadalajara to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5 at 2.59.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Guadalajara	UNAM
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	9
Draws	6	7
Losses	4	4
Goals scored	39	35
Goals conceded	22	25
Scored per game	1.9	1.8
Conceded per game	1.1	1.3
Home record	6W 2D 2L	5W 4D 2L
Away record	4W 4D 2L	4W 3D 2L
Clean sheets	45%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Guadalajara to win	58%	1.73	1.50	-13.2%
A Draw	23%	4.32	4.40	+1.8%
Pumas UNAM to win	19%	5.27	5.75	+9.2%
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.77	1.65	-6.9%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	2.30	2.15	-6.7%
Guadalajara -1.5	38%	2.62	2.30	-12.2%
Pumas UNAM +1.5	62%	1.62	1.51	-6.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.25
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.77
Over 3.5 goals	34%	2.93
Both teams to score	55%	1.81
Guadalajara or Draw	81%	1.23
Pumas UNAM or Draw	42%	2.37
Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5	39%	2.59
Pumas UNAM to win and Over 2.5	12%	8.68
Guadalajara clean sheet	36%	2.77
Pumas UNAM clean sheet	15%	6.86

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%

2-19.9%

2-09.7%

1-09.5%

3-16.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM?

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM is Guadalajara to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Guadalajara to score 1.9 goals and Pumas UNAM 1.0.

Will both teams score in Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Guadalajara last 20 games and 11 of Pumas UNAM last 20.

How are Guadalajara playing?

How are Pumas UNAM playing?

What happened when Guadalajara and Pumas UNAM last met?

It ended Guadalajara 2, Pumas UNAM 2. In the last 2 meetings Guadalajara won 1 and Pumas UNAM won 0.

What is the best bet for Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM?

Guadalajara or Draw at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.