Predictions › Eredivisie › Heerenveen vs Telstar

EredivisieSun 13 Sept, 12:30 UTC

Heerenveen vs Telstar prediction

Abe Lenstra Stadion

HeerenveenHome

1.93 : 1.17

expected goals

TelstarAway

54%Heerenveen

23%Draw

22%Telstar

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Heerenveen vs Telstar is Heerenveen to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction: Heerenveen to win
Chance: 54%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.9, Telstar 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.222 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heerenveen to win and Over 2.5

38% chanceFair price 2.631 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Heerenveen 54%, the draw 23% and Telstar 22%. The bookmakers agree and make Heerenveen the favourite at 1.61.
2
Recent form
Heerenveen took 5 points from their last 5 games and Telstar took 4 from 5. Heerenveen come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Heerenveen won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Telstar won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Heerenveen score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.7. Telstar score 1.5 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Heerenveen games and 14 of Telstar games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Heerenveen won 2 and Telstar won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Heerenveen 3, Telstar 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Heerenveen vs Telstar: Heerenveen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Heerenveen host Telstar in the Eredivisie on Sun 13 Sept, 12:30 at Abe Lenstra Stadion. Our prediction for Heerenveen vs Telstar is Heerenveen to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Heerenveen form

Heerenveen have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Telstar form

Telstar have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Heerenveen won 2, Telstar won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Heerenveen 3, Telstar 0.

Our call

We expect Heerenveen to score about 1.9 goals and Telstar about 1.2. That points to Heerenveen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Heerenveen to win and Over 2.5 at 2.63.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Heerenveen	Telstar
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	7
Draws	4	4
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	34	30
Goals conceded	34	34
Scored per game	1.7	1.5
Conceded per game	1.7	1.7
Home record	6W 1D 2L	4W 2D 4L
Away record	3W 3D 5L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Heerenveen to win	54%	1.84	1.61	-12.6%
A Draw	23%	4.30	4.40	+2.4%
Telstar to win	22%	4.49	4.60	+2.5%
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.22	1.91	-14.1%
Under 3.5 goals	55%	1.82	1.77	-2.7%
Heerenveen -0.5	58%	1.73	1.56	-10.2%
Telstar +0.5	42%	2.36	2.25	-4.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.67
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.65
Both teams to score	60%	1.67
Heerenveen or Draw	78%	1.29
Telstar or Draw	46%	2.20
Heerenveen to win and Over 2.5	38%	2.63
Telstar to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.87
Heerenveen clean sheet	31%	3.24
Telstar clean sheet	14%	6.91

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.8%

2-19.8%

2-08.4%

1-08.0%

3-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Heerenveen vs Telstar?

Our prediction for Heerenveen vs Telstar is Heerenveen to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Heerenveen vs Telstar?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Heerenveen to score 1.9 goals and Telstar 1.2.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Telstar?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Heerenveen last 20 games and 13 of Telstar last 20.

How are Heerenveen playing?

How are Telstar playing?

What happened when Heerenveen and Telstar last met?

It ended Heerenveen 3, Telstar 0. In the last 2 meetings Heerenveen won 2 and Telstar won 0.

What is the best bet for Heerenveen vs Telstar?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.