Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction

The eagle's three picks

Picks are made up to two hours before kick off and then locked, so there are none for this game.

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Tampa Bay Rays 63% and Houston Astros 37%. The bookmakers agree and make Tampa Bay Rays the favourite at -198.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Tampa Bay Rays won 3 of their last 5 and Houston Astros won 2 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Rays come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Tampa Bay Rays won 4 of their last 7 games at home. Houston Astros won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Tampa Bay Rays score 4.2 runs a game and let in 3.9. Houston Astros score 4.1 and let in 4.5. Their recent games average 8.1 and 8.7 runs in total, and the market line is 7.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Tampa Bay Rays won 1 and Houston Astros won 2. The last one ended Houston Astros 2, Tampa Bay Rays 0.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Rays +3.5 wins if Rays win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.