Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Astros +3.5

75% chanceFair price -3072 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Rays -1.5

42% chancePrice +144+1.5% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Tampa Bay Rays 57% and Houston Astros 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Tampa Bay Rays the favourite at -149.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Tampa Bay Rays won 3 of their last 5 and Houston Astros won 2 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Rays come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Tampa Bay Rays won 4 of their last 7 games at home. Houston Astros won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Tampa Bay Rays score 4.2 runs a game and let in 3.9. Houston Astros score 4.1 and let in 4.5. Their recent games average 8.1 and 8.7 runs in total, and the market line is 8.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Tampa Bay Rays won 1 and Houston Astros won 2. The last one ended Houston Astros 2, Tampa Bay Rays 0.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Astros +3.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Rays +3.5 wins if Rays win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.