Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Astros +2.5

70% chanceFair price -2361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Tampa Bay Rays 53% and Houston Astros 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Tampa Bay Rays won 3 of their last 5 and Houston Astros won 2 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Rays come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Tampa Bay Rays won 4 of their last 7 games at home. Houston Astros won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Tampa Bay Rays score 4.2 runs a game and let in 3.9. Houston Astros score 4.1 and let in 4.5. Their recent games average 8.1 and 8.7 runs in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Tampa Bay Rays won 1 and Houston Astros won 2. The last one ended Houston Astros 2, Tampa Bay Rays 0.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Astros +2.5 has a 70% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Rays +3.5 wins if Rays win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.