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Predictions › Argentina Liga Profesional › Independiente vs San Lorenzo
Argentina Liga ProfesionalSun 13 Sept, 22:15 UTC

Independiente vs San Lorenzo prediction

Estadio Libertadores de América

IndependienteHome
1.09 : 0.72
expected goals
San LorenzoAway
43%Independiente
33%Draw
23%San Lorenzo
Eagle safe pickIndependiente or Draw
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente vs San Lorenzo is Independiente to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Independiente or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction
Independiente to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Independiente 1.1, San Lorenzo 0.7
Best bet
Independiente or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score
35%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Independiente or Draw
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

A Draw
33% chancePrice 2.951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente 43%, the draw 33% and San Lorenzo 23%. The bookmakers agree and make Independiente the favourite at 2.05.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente took 7 points from their last 5 games and San Lorenzo took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente won 4 of their last 9 games at home. San Lorenzo won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. San Lorenzo score 0.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Independiente games and 3 of San Lorenzo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Independiente won 1 and San Lorenzo won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended San Lorenzo 1, Independiente 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Independiente or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Independiente vs San Lorenzo: Independiente shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente host San Lorenzo in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sun 13 Sept, 22:15 at Estadio Libertadores de América. Our prediction for Independiente vs San Lorenzo is Independiente to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Independiente or Draw at 1.30.

Independiente form

Independiente have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

San Lorenzo form

San Lorenzo have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 6 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Independiente won 1, San Lorenzo won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished San Lorenzo 1, Independiente 2.

Our call

We expect Independiente to score about 1.1 goals and San Lorenzo about 0.7. That points to Independiente to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Independiente or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is A Draw at 2.95.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

IndependienteSan Lorenzo
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws48
Losses86
Goals scored2615
Goals conceded2617
Scored per game1.30.8
Conceded per game1.30.8
Home record4W 2D 3L5W 2D 3L
Away record4W 2D 5L1W 6D 3L
Clean sheets30%50%
Both teams scored50%30%
Over 2.5 goals45%15%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Independiente to win43%2.312.05-11.2%
A Draw33%2.992.95-1.4%
San Lorenzo to win23%4.304.10-4.6%
Over 1.5 goals58%1.721.56-9.4%
Under 1.5 goals42%2.402.30-4.0%
Independiente -0.545%2.222.00-9.9%
San Lorenzo +0.555%1.821.69-7.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals55%1.82
Over 2.5 goals27%3.65
Over 3.5 goals11%8.96
Both teams to score35%2.85
Independiente or Draw77%1.30
San Lorenzo or Draw57%1.76
Independiente to win and Over 2.517%6.03
San Lorenzo to win and Over 2.58%12.44
Independiente clean sheet49%2.06
San Lorenzo clean sheet33%2.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-017.0%
1-017.0%
1-113.6%
0-111.0%
2-09.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente vs San Lorenzo?

Our prediction for Independiente vs San Lorenzo is Independiente to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Independiente or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Independiente vs San Lorenzo?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Independiente to score 1.1 goals and San Lorenzo 0.7.

Will both teams score in Independiente vs San Lorenzo?

Both teams to score has a 35% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Independiente last 20 games and 6 of San Lorenzo last 20.

How are Independiente playing?

Independiente have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

How are San Lorenzo playing?

San Lorenzo have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 6 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Independiente and San Lorenzo last met?

It ended San Lorenzo 1, Independiente 2. In the last 2 meetings Independiente won 1 and San Lorenzo won 0.

What is the best bet for Independiente vs San Lorenzo?

Independiente or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.