Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 54.5 points

74% chanceFair price -2821 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Under 47.5 points

54% chancePrice -110+3.0% value1 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Colts to win

30% chancePrice +250+3.5% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Kansas City Chiefs 70% and Indianapolis Colts 30%. The bookmakers agree and make Kansas City Chiefs the favourite at -310.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Kansas City Chiefs won 0 of their last 5 and Indianapolis Colts won 0 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Kansas City Chiefs won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Indianapolis Colts won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Kansas City Chiefs score 19.8 points a game and let in 18.2. Indianapolis Colts score 24.6 and let in 25.1. Their recent games average 38.1 and 49.7 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 1 meeting, Kansas City Chiefs won 1 and Indianapolis Colts won 0. The last one ended Kansas City Chiefs 23, Indianapolis Colts 20.

6. 6
   Where the value is

   Under 47.5 points is priced at -110. Our fair price is -117, so the bookmaker pays about 3.0% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 19 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Chiefs +3.5 wins if Chiefs win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.