Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox prediction

The eagle's three picks

Picks are made up to two hours before kick off and then locked, so there are none for this game.

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Boston Red Sox 64% and Kansas City Royals 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Boston Red Sox the favourite at -206.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Boston Red Sox won 3 of their last 5 and Kansas City Royals won 2 of their last 5. Boston Red Sox come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Boston Red Sox won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Kansas City Royals won 4 of their last 6 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Boston Red Sox score 3.9 runs a game and let in 4.5. Kansas City Royals score 5.2 and let in 4.3. Their recent games average 8.3 and 9.4 runs in total, and the market line is 8.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Boston Red Sox won 3 and Kansas City Royals won 0. The last one ended Kansas City Royals 3, Boston Red Sox 4.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Red Sox +3.5 wins if Red Sox win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.