Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Royals +3.5

71% chanceFair price -2481 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Royals to win

38% chanceFair price +1621 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Boston Red Sox 62% and Kansas City Royals 38%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Boston Red Sox won 3 of their last 5 and Kansas City Royals won 2 of their last 5. Boston Red Sox come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Boston Red Sox won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Kansas City Royals won 4 of their last 6 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Boston Red Sox score 3.9 runs a game and let in 4.5. Kansas City Royals score 5.2 and let in 4.3. Their recent games average 8.3 and 9.4 runs in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Boston Red Sox won 3 and Kansas City Royals won 0. The last one ended Kansas City Royals 3, Boston Red Sox 4.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Royals +3.5 has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Red Sox +3.5 wins if Red Sox win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.