Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 2/112 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.5

41% chanceFair price 6/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Kilmarnock 23%, the draw 22% and Heart of Midlothian 55%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Kilmarnock took 1 point from their last 5 games and Heart of Midlothian took 12 from 5. Heart of Midlothian come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Kilmarnock won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Heart of Midlothian won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

4. 4
   Goals

   Kilmarnock score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.9. Heart of Midlothian score 1.8 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Kilmarnock games and 13 of Heart of Midlothian games in that run.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Kilmarnock won 1 and Heart of Midlothian won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Kilmarnock 1, Heart of Midlothian 0.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.