PredictionsUnited StatesLA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC
MLSSat 12 Sept, 22:30 United States time

LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC prediction

Dignity Health Sports Park

LA GalaxyHome
1.22 : 1.01
expected goals
Seattle Sounders FCAway
40%LA Galaxy
30%Draw
30%Seattle
Eagle safe pickUnder 2.5 goals
-175

Quick answer

Our prediction for LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC is LA Galaxy to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at -175.

Prediction
LA Galaxy to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
LA Galaxy 1.2, Seattle Sounders FC 1.0
Best bet
Under 2.5 goals at -175
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

Eagle safe pick

Under 2.5 goals
61% chancePrice -1751 unit

Eagle bold pick

A Draw
30% chancePrice +270+12.1% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives LA Galaxy 40%, the draw 30% and Seattle Sounders FC 30%. The bookmakers agree and make LA Galaxy the favourite at +115.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    LA Galaxy took 7 points from their last 5 games and Seattle Sounders FC took 3 from 5. LA Galaxy come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    LA Galaxy won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Seattle Sounders FC won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    LA Galaxy score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Seattle Sounders FC score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of LA Galaxy games and 8 of Seattle Sounders FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, LA Galaxy won 1 and Seattle Sounders FC won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Seattle Sounders FC 0, LA Galaxy 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC: LA Galaxy shade it

The big picture

LA Galaxy host Seattle Sounders FC in the MLS on Sat 12 Sept, 22:30 at Dignity Health Sports Park. Our prediction for LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC is LA Galaxy to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at -175.

LA Galaxy form

LA Galaxy have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Seattle Sounders FC form

Seattle Sounders FC have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. LA Galaxy won 1, Seattle Sounders FC won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Seattle Sounders FC 0, LA Galaxy 2.

Our call

We expect LA Galaxy to score about 1.2 goals and Seattle Sounders FC about 1.0. That points to LA Galaxy to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 2.5 goals at -175. Our bold bet is A Draw at +270.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LA GalaxySeattle
Games played2020
Wins66
Draws66
Losses88
Goals scored2321
Goals conceded3127
Scored per game1.11.1
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record3W 3D 3L3W 3D 4L
Away record3W 3D 5L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals65%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
LA Galaxy to win40%+151+115-14.2%
A Draw30%+230+270+12.1%
Seattle Sounders FC to win30%+236+190-13.6%
Over 2.5 goals39%+155+140-5.8%
Under 2.5 goals61%-155-175-4.5%
LA Galaxy -0.543%+134+110-10.3%
Seattle Sounders FC +0.557%-134-155-5.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%-194
Over 2.5 goals38%+160
Over 3.5 goals19%+437
Both teams to score46%+119
LA Galaxy or Draw70%-236
Seattle Sounders FC or Draw60%-151
LA Galaxy to win and Over 2.520%+409
Seattle Sounders FC to win and Over 2.514%+607
LA Galaxy clean sheet36%+175
Seattle Sounders FC clean sheet30%+237

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%
1-012.3%
0-011.6%
0-110.1%
2-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC?

Our prediction for LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC is LA Galaxy to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at -175.

What is the score prediction for LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect LA Galaxy to score 1.2 goals and Seattle Sounders FC 1.0.

Will both teams score in LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of LA Galaxy last 20 games and 11 of Seattle Sounders FC last 20.

How are LA Galaxy playing?

LA Galaxy have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Seattle Sounders FC playing?

Seattle Sounders FC have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders FC last met?

It ended Seattle Sounders FC 0, LA Galaxy 2. In the last 2 meetings LA Galaxy won 1 and Seattle Sounders FC won 0.

What is the best bet for LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC?

Under 2.5 goals at -175, with a 61% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.