Las Vegas Aces vs Seattle Storm prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Aces to win

77% chancePrice -4101 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Storm +9.5

56% chancePrice -115+4.2% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Seattle Storm 23% and Las Vegas Aces 77%. The bookmakers agree and make Las Vegas Aces the favourite at -410.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Seattle Storm won 1 of their last 5 and Las Vegas Aces won 3 of their last 5. Las Vegas Aces come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Seattle Storm won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Las Vegas Aces won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Seattle Storm score 84.6 points a game and let in 90.2. Las Vegas Aces score 90.2 and let in 86.5. Their recent games average 174.8 and 176.7 points in total, and the market line is 173.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 4 meetings, Seattle Storm won 1 and Las Vegas Aces won 3. The last one ended Las Vegas Aces 101, Seattle Storm 91.

6. 6
   Where the value is

   Storm +9.5 is priced at -115. Our fair price is -126, so the bookmaker pays about 4.2% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Storm +3.5 wins if Storm win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.