Predictions › Serie A › Lazio vs AC Milan
Lazio vs AC Milan prediction
Sat 12 Sept, 19:00 Kenya time, Olimpico
Lazio1.02 - 1.35
expected goals
AC MilanLazio 28%Draw 29%Milan 44%
Our three picks
✓
Safest pick
Under 3.5 goals
⚡
Bold pick
Correct score 1-1
No value bet here: at the current prices the bookmaker is not giving more than our model thinks is fair. We would rather say so than force one.
Price check against DraftKings
Our chance mixes the model with the market. Value is how much the price pays above our fair price.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio to win | 28% | 3.63 | 3.30 | -9.2% |
| A Draw | 29% | 3.45 | 3.10 | -10.2% |
| AC Milan to win | 44% | 2.30 | 2.20 | -4.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | 2.25 | -5.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | 1.63 | -5.9% |
| Lazio +0.5 | 56% | 1.77 | 1.63 | -8.2% |
| AC Milan -0.5 | 44% | 2.30 | 2.15 | -6.5% |
Goals and other markets
| Market | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 4.68 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 2.08 |
| Lazio or Draw | 56% | 1.77 |
| AC Milan or Draw | 72% | 1.38 |
| Lazio to win and Over 2.5 | 14% | 7.22 |
| AC Milan to win and Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.33 |
| Lazio clean sheet | 26% | 3.85 |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 36% | 2.77 |
Most likely scores
1-113.7%
0-111.9%
0-010.2%
1-08.8%
1-28.7%
Questions people ask
Who will win Lazio vs AC Milan?
Our model gives Lazio a 28% chance, the draw 29% and AC Milan 44%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs AC Milan?
We expect about 2.4 goals (Lazio 1.02, AC Milan 1.35). Over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs AC Milan?
Both teams to score has a 48% chance according to our model.
What is the most likely score?
1-1, with a 13.7% chance, followed by 0-1 and 0-0.