Predictions › Serie A › Lecce vs Monza
Lecce vs Monza prediction
Sun 13 Sept, 16:00 Kenya time, Via Del Mare
Lecce1.19 - 1.16
expected goals
MonzaLecce 36%Draw 30%Monza 35%
Our three picks
✓
Safest pick
Monza +0.5
⚡
Bold pick
Correct score 1-1
No value bet here: at the current prices the bookmaker is not giving more than our model thinks is fair. We would rather say so than force one.
Price check against DraftKings
Our chance mixes the model with the market. Value is how much the price pays above our fair price.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce to win | 36% | 2.79 | 2.60 | -6.9% |
| A Draw | 30% | 3.38 | 3.00 | -11.3% |
| Monza to win | 35% | 2.89 | 2.75 | -4.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.39 | 2.25 | -5.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | 1.65 | -4.3% |
| Lecce -0.5 | 36% | 2.79 | 2.50 | -10.5% |
| Monza +0.5 | 64% | 1.56 | 1.48 | -5.3% |
Goals and other markets
| Market | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.39 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 4.73 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 2.06 |
| Lecce or Draw | 65% | 1.53 |
| Monza or Draw | 64% | 1.56 |
| Lecce to win and Over 2.5 | 19% | 5.38 |
| Monza to win and Over 2.5 | 18% | 5.59 |
| Lecce clean sheet | 31% | 3.20 |
| Monza clean sheet | 30% | 3.28 |
Most likely scores
1-113.9%
1-010.5%
0-010.3%
0-110.3%
2-17.8%
Questions people ask
Who will win Lecce vs Monza?
Our model gives Lecce a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Monza 35%.
How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Monza?
We expect about 2.3 goals (Lecce 1.19, Monza 1.16). Over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Monza?
Both teams to score has a 49% chance according to our model.
What is the most likely score?
1-1, with a 13.9% chance, followed by 1-0 and 0-0.