Predictions › United Kingdom › Leeds United vs Crystal Palace

Premier LeagueSun 20 Sept, 14:00 United Kingdom time

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace prediction

Elland Road

Leeds UnitedHome

1.61 : 1.14

expected goals

Crystal PalaceAway

48%Leeds

26%Draw

26%C Palace

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace is Leeds United to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Leeds United to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Leeds United 1.6, Crystal Palace 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Leeds United to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 12/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Leeds United 48%, the draw 26% and Crystal Palace 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Leeds United the favourite at 21/20.
2
Recent form
Leeds United took 8 points from their last 5 games and Crystal Palace took 9 from 5. Crystal Palace come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Leeds United won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Crystal Palace won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Leeds United score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Crystal Palace score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Leeds United games and 15 of Crystal Palace games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Leeds United won 1 and Crystal Palace won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Crystal Palace 0, Leeds United 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Leeds United are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Leeds United host Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 at Elland Road. Our prediction for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace is Leeds United to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Leeds United form

Leeds United have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Crystal Palace form

Crystal Palace have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Leeds United won 1, Crystal Palace won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Crystal Palace 0, Leeds United 0.

Our call

We expect Leeds United to score about 1.6 goals and Crystal Palace about 1.1. That points to Leeds United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Leeds United to win and Over 2.5 at 12/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Leeds	C Palace
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	8	5
Losses	5	7
Goals scored	26	27
Goals conceded	26	29
Scored per game	1.3	1.4
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	4W 2D 3L	5W 4D 2L
Away record	3W 6D 2L	3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Leeds United to win	48%	11/10	21/20	-2.4%
A Draw	26%	11/4	5/2	-9.9%
Crystal Palace to win	26%	11/4	12/5	-10.7%
Over 2.5 goals	51%	10/11	5/6	-5.9%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	21/20	10/11	-7.1%
Leeds United -0.5	47%	11/10	10/11	-8.7%
Crystal Palace +0.5	53%	10/11	4/6	-10.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	3/10
Over 2.5 goals	52%	10/11
Over 3.5 goals	30%	12/5
Both teams to score	55%	4/5
Leeds United or Draw	74%	4/11
Crystal Palace or Draw	52%	10/11
Leeds United to win and Over 2.5	30%	12/5
Crystal Palace to win and Over 2.5	16%	11/2
Leeds United clean sheet	32%	85/40
Crystal Palace clean sheet	20%	4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%

1-09.6%

2-19.5%

2-08.3%

0-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

Our prediction for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace is Leeds United to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Leeds United to score 1.6 goals and Crystal Palace 1.1.

Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Leeds United last 20 games and 11 of Crystal Palace last 20.

How are Leeds United playing?

How are Crystal Palace playing?

What happened when Leeds United and Crystal Palace last met?

It ended Crystal Palace 0, Leeds United 0. In the last 2 meetings Leeds United won 1 and Crystal Palace won 0.

What is the best bet for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.