Leeds United vs Newcastle United prediction

Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 United Kingdom time, Elland Road

Leeds United

1.46 - 1.23

expected goals

Newcastle United

Leeds 42%Draw 27%Newcastle 31%

Our three picks

✓

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 8/252 units

⚡

Leeds United to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 59/201 unit

No value bet here: at the current prices the bookmaker is not giving more than our model thinks is fair. We would rather say so than force one.

Our chance mixes the model with the market. Value is how much the price pays above our fair price.

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Leeds United to win	42%	139/100	27/20	-1.8%
A Draw	27%	67/25	51/20	-3.6%
Newcastle United to win	31%	111/50	19/10	-10.0%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	99/100	77/100	-11.1%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	101/100	21/20	+2.0%
Leeds United -0.5	42%	139/100	5/4	-6.0%
Newcastle United +0.5	58%	18/25	57/100	-8.6%

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	8/25
Over 2.5 goals	50%	99/100
Over 3.5 goals	28%	127/50
Both teams to score	55%	41/50
Leeds United or Draw	69%	9/20
Newcastle United or Draw	58%	18/25
Leeds United to win and Over 2.5	25%	59/20
Newcastle United to win and Over 2.5	18%	447/100
Leeds United clean sheet	29%	241/100
Newcastle United clean sheet	23%	33/10

1-112.9%

1-09.2%

2-18.9%

0-17.6%

0-07.6%

Who will win Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

Our model gives Leeds United a 42% chance, the draw 27% and Newcastle United 31%.

How many goals will there be in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

We expect about 2.7 goals (Leeds United 1.46, Newcastle United 1.23). Over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance.

Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance according to our model.

What is the most likely score?

1-1, with a 12.9% chance, followed by 1-0 and 2-1.