Predictions › Liga MX › León vs Atlético de San Luis

Liga MXTue 15 Sept, 01:00 UTC

León vs Atlético de San Luis prediction

Estadio León

LeónHome

1.71 : 1.24

expected goals

Atlético de San LuisAway

48%León

25%Draw

27%Atl. San Luis

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for León vs Atlético de San Luis is León to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: León to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: León 1.7, Atlético de San Luis 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético de San Luis to win

27% chancePrice 3.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives León 48%, the draw 25% and Atlético de San Luis 27%. The bookmakers agree and make León the favourite at 1.91.
2
Recent form
León took 10 points from their last 5 games and Atlético de San Luis took 5 from 5. León come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
León won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Atlético de San Luis won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
León score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.8. Atlético de San Luis score 1.3 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of León games and 13 of Atlético de San Luis games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, León won 1 and Atlético de San Luis won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético de San Luis 1, León 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

León vs Atlético de San Luis: León are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

León host Atlético de San Luis in the Liga MX on Tue 15 Sept, 01:00 at Estadio León. Our prediction for León vs Atlético de San Luis is León to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

León form

León have 9 wins, 1 draw and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Atlético de San Luis form

Atlético de San Luis have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. León won 1, Atlético de San Luis won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético de San Luis 1, León 2.

Our call

We expect León to score about 1.7 goals and Atlético de San Luis about 1.2. That points to León to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Atlético de San Luis to win at 3.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	León	Atl. San Luis
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	5
Draws	1	5
Losses	10	10
Goals scored	26	26
Goals conceded	35	34
Scored per game	1.3	1.3
Conceded per game	1.8	1.7
Home record	6W 0D 3L	3W 3D 5L
Away record	3W 1D 7L	2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
León to win	48%	2.09	1.91	-8.8%
A Draw	25%	3.98	3.55	-10.9%
Atlético de San Luis to win	27%	3.69	3.65	-1.0%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.84	1.71	-7.0%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.19	1.95	-10.8%
León -0.5	49%	2.04	1.83	-10.2%
Atlético de San Luis +0.5	51%	1.96	1.80	-8.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.25
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.76
Over 3.5 goals	34%	2.92
Both teams to score	59%	1.70
León or Draw	73%	1.37
Atlético de San Luis or Draw	52%	1.91
León to win and Over 2.5	32%	3.14
Atlético de San Luis to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.78
León clean sheet	29%	3.47
Atlético de San Luis clean sheet	18%	5.55

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%

2-19.5%

1-08.2%

2-07.6%

1-26.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win León vs Atlético de San Luis?

Our prediction for León vs Atlético de San Luis is León to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for León vs Atlético de San Luis?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect León to score 1.7 goals and Atlético de San Luis 1.2.

Will both teams score in León vs Atlético de San Luis?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of León last 20 games and 12 of Atlético de San Luis last 20.

How are León playing?

How are Atlético de San Luis playing?

What happened when León and Atlético de San Luis last met?

It ended Atlético de San Luis 1, León 2. In the last 1 meeting León won 1 and Atlético de San Luis won 0.

What is the best bet for León vs Atlético de San Luis?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.