Predictions › Ligue 1 › Lille vs Troyes
Lille vs Troyes prediction
Sun 13 Sept, 16:00 Kenya time, Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille2.06 - 0.84
expected goals
TroyesLille 65%Draw 21%Troyes 14%
Our three picks
✓
Safest pick
Lille to win
⚡
Bold pick
Lille to win and Over 2.5
No value bet here: at the current prices the bookmaker is not giving more than our model thinks is fair. We would rather say so than force one.
Price check against DraftKings
Our chance mixes the model with the market. Value is how much the price pays above our fair price.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille to win | 65% | 1.53 | 1.44 | -6.4% |
| A Draw | 21% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +1.4% |
| Troyes to win | 14% | 7.34 | 7.00 | -4.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 | 1.69 | -6.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | 2.15 | -4.1% |
| Lille -1.5 | 41% | 2.42 | 2.15 | -11.0% |
| Troyes +1.5 | 59% | 1.71 | 1.63 | -4.8% |
Goals and other markets
| Market | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 2.00 |
| Lille or Draw | 86% | 1.16 |
| Troyes or Draw | 35% | 2.88 |
| Lille to win and Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 |
| Troyes to win and Over 2.5 | 8% | 13.04 |
| Lille clean sheet | 43% | 2.31 |
| Troyes clean sheet | 13% | 7.87 |
Most likely scores
2-011.7%
1-010.8%
1-110.1%
2-19.8%
3-08.1%
Questions people ask
Who will win Lille vs Troyes?
Our model gives Lille a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Troyes 14%.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Troyes?
We expect about 2.9 goals (Lille 2.06, Troyes 0.84). Over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Troyes?
Both teams to score has a 50% chance according to our model.
What is the most likely score?
2-0, with a 11.7% chance, followed by 1-0 and 1-1.