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Carabao CupTue 15 Sept, 20:00 United Kingdom time

Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction

Anfield

LiverpoolHome

1.76 : 1.17

expected goals

Tottenham HotspurAway

50%Liverpool

25%Draw

25%Spurs

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

8/13

Quick answer

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur is Liverpool to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 8/13.

Prediction: Liverpool to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Liverpool 1.8, Tottenham Hotspur 1.2
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 8/13
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

61% chancePrice 8/131 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Liverpool to win and Over 2.5

34% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Liverpool 50%, the draw 25% and Tottenham Hotspur 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Liverpool the favourite at 4/5.
2
Recent form
Liverpool took 9 points from their last 5 games and Tottenham Hotspur took 7 from 5. Liverpool come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Liverpool won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Tottenham Hotspur won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Liverpool score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.4. Tottenham Hotspur score 1.1 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Liverpool games and 12 of Tottenham Hotspur games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Liverpool won 1 and Tottenham Hotspur won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Liverpool 1, Tottenham Hotspur 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 61% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur: Liverpool are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Liverpool host Tottenham Hotspur in the Carabao Cup on Tue 15 Sept, 20:00 at Anfield. Our prediction for Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur is Liverpool to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 8/13.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Tottenham Hotspur form

Tottenham Hotspur have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Liverpool won 1, Tottenham Hotspur won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Liverpool 1, Tottenham Hotspur 1.

Our call

We expect Liverpool to score about 1.8 goals and Tottenham Hotspur about 1.2. That points to Liverpool to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 8/13. Our bold bet is Liverpool to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Liverpool	Spurs
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	5
Draws	5	4
Losses	7	11
Goals scored	34	23
Goals conceded	28	37
Scored per game	1.7	1.1
Conceded per game	1.4	1.9
Home record	5W 4D 1L	3W 2D 5L
Away record	3W 1D 6L	2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	65%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Liverpool to win	50%	Evens	4/5	-9.1%
A Draw	25%	3/1	11/4	-8.3%
Tottenham Hotspur to win	25%	3/1	11/4	-6.0%
Over 3.5 goals	39%	6/4	5/4	-11.6%
Under 3.5 goals	61%	4/6	8/13	-2.5%
Liverpool -0.5	51%	10/11	4/5	-8.9%
Tottenham Hotspur +0.5	49%	21/20	10/11	-7.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1/4
Over 2.5 goals	56%	4/5
Over 3.5 goals	34%	2/1
Both teams to score	58%	8/11
Liverpool or Draw	75%	1/3
Tottenham Hotspur or Draw	50%	Evens
Liverpool to win and Over 2.5	34%	2/1
Tottenham Hotspur to win and Over 2.5	15%	11/2
Liverpool clean sheet	31%	9/4
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet	17%	5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%

2-19.7%

1-08.7%

2-08.2%

1-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur is Liverpool to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 8/13.

What is the score prediction for Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Liverpool to score 1.8 goals and Tottenham Hotspur 1.2.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Liverpool last 20 games and 12 of Tottenham Hotspur last 20.

How are Liverpool playing?

How are Tottenham Hotspur playing?

What happened when Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur last met?

It ended Liverpool 1, Tottenham Hotspur 1. In the last 2 meetings Liverpool won 1 and Tottenham Hotspur won 0.

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Under 3.5 goals at 8/13, with a 61% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.