Predictions › Ligue 1 › Lorient vs Toulouse
Lorient vs Toulouse prediction
Sat 12 Sept, 21:45 Kenya time, Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat
Lorient1.42 - 1.32
expected goals
ToulouseLorient 39%Draw 27%Toulouse 34%
Our three picks
✓
Safest pick
Toulouse +0.5
⚡
Bold pick
Lorient to win
No value bet here: at the current prices the bookmaker is not giving more than our model thinks is fair. We would rather say so than force one.
Price check against DraftKings
Our chance mixes the model with the market. Value is how much the price pays above our fair price.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to win | 39% | 2.58 | 2.55 | -1.3% |
| A Draw | 27% | 3.70 | 3.30 | -10.8% |
| Toulouse to win | 34% | 2.92 | 2.85 | -2.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.94 | 1.95 | +0.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.06 | 1.83 | -11.2% |
| Lorient -0.5 | 39% | 2.58 | 2.40 | -7.1% |
| Toulouse +0.5 | 61% | 1.63 | 1.51 | -7.2% |
Goals and other markets
| Market | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.94 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.40 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 1.78 |
| Lorient or Draw | 66% | 1.52 |
| Toulouse or Draw | 61% | 1.63 |
| Lorient to win and Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.21 |
| Toulouse to win and Over 2.5 | 21% | 4.81 |
| Lorient clean sheet | 27% | 3.75 |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 24% | 4.13 |
Most likely scores
1-112.8%
2-18.6%
1-08.4%
1-28.0%
0-17.8%
Questions people ask
Who will win Lorient vs Toulouse?
Our model gives Lorient a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Toulouse 34%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Toulouse?
We expect about 2.7 goals (Lorient 1.42, Toulouse 1.32). Over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Toulouse?
Both teams to score has a 56% chance according to our model.
What is the most likely score?
1-1, with a 12.8% chance, followed by 2-1 and 1-0.