Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Nationals +1.5

65% chancePrice -1981 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Over 8 runs

56% chancePrice -115+5.5% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Washington Nationals 52% and Los Angeles Angels 48%. The bookmakers agree and make Washington Nationals the favourite at -118.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Washington Nationals won 0 of their last 5 and Los Angeles Angels won 3 of their last 5. Los Angeles Angels come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Washington Nationals won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Los Angeles Angels won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Washington Nationals score 4.0 runs a game and let in 5.0. Los Angeles Angels score 4.0 and let in 3.5. Their recent games average 8.9 and 7.5 runs in total, and the market line is 8.

5. 5
   Where the value is

   Over 8 runs is priced at -115. Our fair price is -130, so the bookmaker pays about 5.5% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Nationals +3.5 wins if Nationals win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.