Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins prediction

The eagle's three picks

Picks are made up to two hours before kick off and then locked, so there are none for this game.

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Miami Marlins 35% and Los Angeles Dodgers 65%. The bookmakers agree and make Los Angeles Dodgers the favourite at -209.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Miami Marlins won 1 of their last 5 and Los Angeles Dodgers won 5 of their last 5. Los Angeles Dodgers come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Miami Marlins won 5 of their last 12 games at home. Los Angeles Dodgers won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Miami Marlins score 4.8 runs a game and let in 5.3. Los Angeles Dodgers score 5.0 and let in 3.7. Their recent games average 10.0 and 8.8 runs in total, and the market line is 7.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Miami Marlins won 2 and Los Angeles Dodgers won 1. The last one ended Los Angeles Dodgers 2, Miami Marlins 3.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Marlins +3.5 wins if Marlins win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.