Predictions › Ligue 1 › Lyon vs Stade Rennais

Ligue 1Sat 19 Sept, 18:45 UTC

Lyon vs Stade Rennais prediction

Groupama Stadium

LyonHome

1.77 : 1.45

expected goals

Stade RennaisAway

45%Lyon

24%Draw

31%Rennes

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lyon vs Stade Rennais is Lyon to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Lyon to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lyon 1.8, Stade Rennais 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lyon to win and Over 2.5

32% chanceFair price 3.131 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lyon 45%, the draw 24% and Stade Rennais 31%. The bookmakers agree and make Lyon the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Lyon took 7 points from their last 5 games and Stade Rennais took 10 from 5. Stade Rennais come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lyon won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Stade Rennais won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Lyon score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Stade Rennais score 1.9 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Lyon games and 16 of Stade Rennais games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lyon won 1 and Stade Rennais won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lyon 4, Stade Rennais 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Lyon vs Stade Rennais: Lyon shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lyon host Stade Rennais in the Ligue 1 on Sat 19 Sept, 18:45 at Groupama Stadium. Our prediction for Lyon vs Stade Rennais is Lyon to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Lyon form

Lyon have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Stade Rennais form

Stade Rennais have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lyon won 1, Stade Rennais won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lyon 4, Stade Rennais 2.

Our call

We expect Lyon to score about 1.8 goals and Stade Rennais about 1.4. That points to Lyon to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Lyon to win and Over 2.5 at 3.13.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lyon	Rennes
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	12
Draws	5	2
Losses	6	6
Goals scored	28	37
Goals conceded	25	30
Scored per game	1.4	1.9
Conceded per game	1.3	1.5
Home record	6W 2D 3L	7W 2D 2L
Away record	3W 3D 3L	5W 0D 4L
Clean sheets	35%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lyon to win	45%	2.24	2.10	-6.3%
A Draw	24%	4.12	3.75	-8.9%
Stade Rennais to win	31%	3.22	3.10	-3.6%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.42	2.20	-8.9%
Under 3.5 goals	59%	1.71	1.59	-6.9%
Lyon -0.5	46%	2.18	1.95	-10.5%
Stade Rennais +0.5	54%	1.85	1.69	-8.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	62%	1.60
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.49
Both teams to score	64%	1.56
Lyon or Draw	69%	1.45
Stade Rennais or Draw	55%	1.81
Lyon to win and Over 2.5	32%	3.13
Stade Rennais to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.61
Lyon clean sheet	23%	4.26
Stade Rennais clean sheet	17%	5.86

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%

2-19.1%

1-27.4%

2-26.6%

1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Lyon vs Stade Rennais?

Our prediction for Lyon vs Stade Rennais is Lyon to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Lyon vs Stade Rennais?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Lyon to score 1.8 goals and Stade Rennais 1.4.

Will both teams score in Lyon vs Stade Rennais?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Lyon last 20 games and 12 of Stade Rennais last 20.

How are Lyon playing?

How are Stade Rennais playing?

What happened when Lyon and Stade Rennais last met?

It ended Lyon 4, Stade Rennais 2. In the last 2 meetings Lyon won 1 and Stade Rennais won 1.

What is the best bet for Lyon vs Stade Rennais?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.