Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Machida Zelvia 37%, the draw 27% and Kashiwa Reysol 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Machida Zelvia took 13 points from their last 5 games and Kashiwa Reysol took 9 from 5. Machida Zelvia come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Machida Zelvia won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Kashiwa Reysol won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Goals

   Machida Zelvia score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Kashiwa Reysol score 1.6 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Machida Zelvia games and 9 of Kashiwa Reysol games in that run.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Machida Zelvia won 2 and Kashiwa Reysol won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Machida Zelvia 1, Kashiwa Reysol 0.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.