Predictions › LaLiga › Málaga vs Villarreal

LaLigaThu 17 Sept, 19:30 UTC

Málaga vs Villarreal prediction

La Rosaleda

MálagaHome

1.28 : 1.69

expected goals

VillarrealAway

28%Málaga

25%Draw

46%Villarreal

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Málaga vs Villarreal is Villarreal to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Villarreal to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Málaga 1.3, Villarreal 1.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Villarreal to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 3.221 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Málaga 28%, the draw 25% and Villarreal 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Villarreal the favourite at 2.00.
2
Recent form
Málaga took 2 points from their last 4 games and Villarreal took 2 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Goals
Málaga score 0.3 goals a game and let in 1.8. Villarreal score 1.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of Málaga games and 13 of Villarreal games in that run.
4
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Málaga vs Villarreal: Villarreal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Málaga host Villarreal in the LaLiga on Thu 17 Sept, 19:30 at La Rosaleda. Our prediction for Málaga vs Villarreal is Villarreal to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Málaga form

Málaga have 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 4 games, with 1 goals scored and 7 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 2. Their last 4 results read D, L, D, L, newest first.

Villarreal form

Villarreal have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Málaga to score about 1.3 goals and Villarreal about 1.7. That points to Villarreal to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Villarreal to win and Over 2.5 at 3.22.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Málaga	Villarreal
Games played	4	20
Wins	0	8
Draws	2	5
Losses	2	7
Goals scored	1	36
Goals conceded	7	31
Scored per game	0.3	1.8
Conceded per game	1.8	1.6
Home record	0W 2D 0L	6W 0D 2L
Away record	0W 0D 2L	2W 5D 5L
Clean sheets	25%	5%
Both teams scored	25%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	25%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Málaga to win	28%	3.53	3.45	-2.4%
A Draw	25%	3.96	3.80	-4.1%
Villarreal to win	46%	2.15	2.00	-7.1%
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.73	1.61	-7.0%
Under 2.5 goals	42%	2.38	2.25	-5.3%
Málaga +0.5	52%	1.91	1.77	-7.3%
Villarreal -0.5	48%	2.10	1.91	-9.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.25
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.76
Over 3.5 goals	34%	2.90
Both teams to score	59%	1.68
Málaga or Draw	54%	1.87
Villarreal or Draw	72%	1.39
Málaga to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.50
Villarreal to win and Over 2.5	31%	3.22
Málaga clean sheet	18%	5.41
Villarreal clean sheet	28%	3.58

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

1-29.4%

0-18.0%

0-27.4%

2-17.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Málaga vs Villarreal?

Our prediction for Málaga vs Villarreal is Villarreal to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Málaga vs Villarreal?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Málaga to score 1.3 goals and Villarreal 1.7.

Will both teams score in Málaga vs Villarreal?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 1 of Málaga last 4 games and 16 of Villarreal last 20.

How are Málaga playing?

How are Villarreal playing?

What is the best bet for Málaga vs Villarreal?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.